[Epoch Times February 02, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Wu Minzhou reported in Taipei, Taiwan) After US President Biden takes office, will the outside world care about whether the US Indo-Pacific strategy will change? Some scholars stated on the 2nd that the CCP invaded the airspace southwest of Taiwan almost every day. If the United States wants to effectively control the first island chain, including Taiwan in the “Integrated Air Defense and Missile Defense System” (IAMD) is a “must do” in the future. Let Taiwan have Aegis ships.
The Envision Foundation held a symposium on “Taiwan’s Role in US Indo-Pacific Strategy and Potential Cooperation Issues between Taiwan and the US” on the 2nd, inviting experts to discuss how the United States can work together in the background.
Biden’s US-China relationship is “revised Trumpism”
Regarding the Indo-Pacific strategy proposed by former U.S. President Trump (Trump), Guo Yuren, a professor at the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Sun Yat-sen University, said that Biden’s U.S.-China relationship will adopt “revised Trumpism”, although the U.S. The gradual resumption of dialogue will not completely reverse Trump’s trade and technology sanctions against the CCP, but will re-negotiate with the CCP on the basis of Trump’s tenure.
Yan Jianfa, a professor of the Department of Business Administration at the Hiking University of Science and Technology, believes that if Biden adopts multilateralism, neighboring countries in the Indo-Pacific region will certainly play more roles. The general framework of the future international situation should be the expansion of the CCP and the confrontation between the two major groups of the Anglo-American alliance, and this relationship “will not collapse, but will only become tougher.”
He said that the CCP is about to face a century of party establishment and will inevitably use more xenophobic and provocative methods to consolidate the country. At present, due to the impact of the epidemic, cross-strait exchanges across the Taiwan Strait are almost in a state of cessation. The more obvious, and Taiwan is located in the hub of the first island chain, the role and importance of the international anti-communist camp will become higher and higher.
There is bound to be a value war between the United States and China
There is bound to be a battle of values between the United States and the United States of “individual liberalism vs. collective totalitarianism”. Yan Jianfa believes that Taiwan must be mentally prepared to choose sides and participate in the war to avoid disasters, and Taiwan’s top priority should be to maintain the status quo of peace across the Taiwan Strait. Next, Taiwan’s socio-economic and cultural system will be closer to the United States’ alliance team.
Regarding the prospect of Taiwan-US cooperation, since the US military does not have an airport at the northern end of the South China Sea, aircraft can only rely on aircraft carriers for take-off and landing, which highlights the importance of the southwestern corner of Taiwan. Guo Yuren said that now the CCP invades Taiwan’s southwest airspace almost every day, increasing the possibility of forcing the United States to include Taiwan in IAMD.
He believes that if the United States wants to effectively control the first island chain, setting up IAMD in Taiwan is a “must do” in the near future. The first step is to let Taiwan have Aegis ships, and the second step is to let Taiwan’s existing air defenses. Upgraded with anti-missile system and connected with US military system.
Guo Yuren said that the CCP will continue to “raise war with peace and force peace with war”, such as cooperating with Russia and North Korea in naval exercises in the East to gain bargaining chips with the United States by creating regional tensions, and at the same time to divert U.S. attention from the South China Sea. , Because the South China Sea is still the biggest focus of the CCP.
Yan Jianfa said that the CCP has continued to attack and intimidate Taiwan’s culture, causing the Taiwan government and people to move further away from China. Taiwan is located in the hub of the first island chain, and when the United States and Britain intervened in Hong Kong or the South China Sea issue, the status of the horn of conflict with the CCP has gradually increased in the international anti-communist camp. Therefore, in response to the threat of the CCP, Taiwan will inevitably choose sides in the US-China competition and strengthen its integration with the US alliance in all aspects of economy, society, and culture.
Fighting at Jinmen in Dongsha?Scholar: unlikely
In addition, “New York Times” senior reporter and columnist Nicholas Kristof wrote on the 1st that the war between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party may not occur. If there is a military conflict, it may be in the Dongsha Islands or Kinmen, and the probability has risen to a dozen. The highest in the past year, and it will become the most dangerous nuclear power confrontation in the United States since the Cuban missile crisis.
In this regard, Guo Yuren said that he did not think that the time had come, nor did he see that the CCP was going to engage in such a game. Judging from the Diaoyutai, Taiwan Strait Central Line and the recent southwestern airspace, the CCP is better at using cutting tools. The three steps of the sausage strategy include destroying the status quo, creating a new status quo, and then enacting domestic laws to legalize the new status quo.
He took the East China Sea issue as an example. The CCP established the East China Sea Aviation Identification Zone in 2013. Therefore, he believes that Dongsha will not become a new Cuban crisis, and will prefer a sausage-style strategy. Therefore, Taiwan must also have a specific strategy.
As for whether the communist army will use the method of “smuggling to attack Taiwan” to sneak soldiers and munitions into the island of Taiwan and raise their troops again? Guo Yuren believes that the failure rate and political cost of this are too high, and it is more reckless than full-scale war. Instead of worrying about such surprise attacks, it is better to worry about “invisible wars” because “this is what the CCP is doing against Taiwan every day. “.
Xi Ping’s re-election has low probability of attacking Taiwan first
Yan Jianfa also believes that the CCP will not attack Taiwan. First, Taiwan’s science and technology industry is very important, and other countries will surely take action if it starts war. Second, the CCP has too many conflict points, from Diaoyutai, the Philippines, Vietnam, and India borders, to the South China Sea conflict and Taiwan Strait. Conflict, once a certain area catches fire, other places may wait for an opportunity to ignite, creating multiple negatives.
He said that according to the report of the “19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China”, their goal is to build a strong country, so they hope to have a stable environment, especially at present, many people hope that Chinese President Xi Jinping will step down. In order to consolidate the power, he has been in the past one or two years. It will only be more tolerant and more embellished in order to tide over the difficulties.
Editor in charge: Lv Meiqi #